Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 2021 | 11391 | 50876 | 387 | 106 | 71 | 102 |
| April 20 2021 | 11401 | 50908 | 391 | 106 | 72 | 105 |
| April 21 2021 | 11410 | 50986 | 391 | 106 | 74 | 104 |
| April 22 2021 | 11415 | 51067 | 391 | 106 | 77 | 104 |
| April 23 2021 | 11424 | 51123 | 391 | 106 | 80 | 104 |
| April 24 2021 | 11431 | 51185 | 391 | 106 | 77 | 102 |
| April 25 2021 | 11439 | 51252 | 391 | 106 | 78 | 103 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 7.7% | 6 | 0.05% | 8 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.3 | 11.5% | 9 | 0.07% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.0 | 29.5% | 23 | 0.11% | 28 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 2.0 | 24.4% | 19 | 0.14% | 23 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.7 | 9% | 7 | 0.07% | 9 | 0.09% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.4 | 7.7% | 6 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.0 | 9% | 7 | 0.06% | 10 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.1 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 8 | 6.9 | 100% | 78 | 0.07% | 103 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 2021 | 7263 | 29912 | 247 | 94 | 45 | 78 |
| April 20 2021 | 7274 | 29937 | 249 | 94 | 52 | 77 |
| April 21 2021 | 7279 | 29988 | 250 | 94 | 57 | 75 |
| April 22 2021 | 7282 | 30015 | 250 | 94 | 60 | 73 |
| April 23 2021 | 7285 | 30032 | 250 | 94 | 49 | 67 |
| April 24 2021 | 7288 | 30059 | 250 | 94 | 39 | 66 |
| April 25 2021 | 7288 | 30083 | 250 | 94 | 30 | 66 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 16.7% | 5 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 10 | 0.12% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.03% | 7 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 16.7% | 5 | 0.06% | 12 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 11 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 13.3% | 4 | 0.05% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 0 | 3.6 | 100% | 30 | 0.05% | 66 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 2021 | 5655 | 19812 | 259 | 76 | 66 | 104 |
| April 20 2021 | 5655 | 19822 | 259 | 77 | 63 | 99 |
| April 21 2021 | 5661 | 19859 | 261 | 77 | 59 | 92 |
| April 22 2021 | 5666 | 19893 | 261 | 77 | 61 | 94 |
| April 23 2021 | 5669 | 19914 | 261 | 77 | 61 | 80 |
| April 24 2021 | 5679 | 19936 | 263 | 77 | 65 | 87 |
| April 25 2021 | 5684 | 19955 | 263 | 77 | 59 | 82 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.1% | 3 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 0.9 | 18.6% | 11 | 0.2% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.6 | 11.9% | 7 | 0.15% | 8 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.1 | 16.9% | 10 | 0.18% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.7 | 10.2% | 6 | 0.12% | 9 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.6 | 16.9% | 10 | 0.15% | 12 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 13.6% | 8 | 0.13% | 16 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 6.8% | 4 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 5 | 5.1 | 100% | 59 | 0.13% | 82 | 0.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 2021 | 12547 | 56638 | 396 | 80 | 43 | 79 |
| April 20 2021 | 12556 | 56737 | 396 | 80 | 45 | 74 |
| April 21 2021 | 12565 | 56808 | 397 | 80 | 50 | 78 |
| April 22 2021 | 12582 | 56899 | 398 | 80 | 67 | 87 |
| April 23 2021 | 12598 | 56993 | 398 | 80 | 76 | 94 |
| April 24 2021 | 12617 | 57080 | 398 | 80 | 87 | 106 |
| April 25 2021 | 12617 | 57123 | 398 | 80 | 80 | 102 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 17.5% | 14 | 0.12% | 18 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | -1 | 3.4 | 28.8% | 23 | 0.14% | 29 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.0 | 8.8% | 7 | 0.03% | 10 | 0.05% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 2.3 | 23.8% | 19 | 0.14% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.9 | 10% | 8 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.5% | 6 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.3 | 3.8% | 3 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 0 | 10.0 | 100% | 80 | 0.07% | 102 | 0.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 2021 | 43559 | 338303 | 1370 | 292 | 742 | 1084 |
| April 20 2021 | 43603 | 338549 | 1376 | 292 | 699 | 1088 |
| April 21 2021 | 43666 | 338985 | 1379 | 293 | 656 | 1096 |
| April 22 2021 | 43765 | 339570 | 1380 | 293 | 704 | 1057 |
| April 23 2021 | 43830 | 340019 | 1381 | 293 | 723 | 1013 |
| April 24 2021 | 43890 | 340511 | 1385 | 295 | 686 | 986 |
| April 25 2021 | 43945 | 340931 | 1389 | 295 | 643 | 935 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 4.9 | 7.3% | 47 | 0.08% | 67 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 14.9 | 24% | 154 | 0.22% | 213 | 0.3% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 17.3 | 27.7% | 178 | 0.17% | 251 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 8.7 | 14% | 90 | 0.12% | 137 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 8.1 | 12.6% | 81 | 0.12% | 116 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 5.1 | 7.5% | 48 | 0.07% | 89 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.1 | 5.6% | 36 | 0.07% | 48 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 3 | 0.6 | 1.4% | 9 | 0.02% | 14 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 55 | 62.7 | 100% | 643 | 0.12% | 935 | 0.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 2021 | 590831 | 2803121 | 28594 | 6710 | 6896 | 10647 |
| April 20 2021 | 591636 | 2806631 | 28694 | 6718 | 6897 | 10566 |
| April 21 2021 | 592262 | 2811070 | 28764 | 6721 | 6954 | 10465 |
| April 22 2021 | 592994 | 2816234 | 28817 | 6725 | 7284 | 10151 |
| April 23 2021 | 593789 | 2820847 | 28865 | 6738 | 7157 | 9854 |
| April 24 2021 | 594283 | 2824492 | 28927 | 6757 | 6722 | 9544 |
| April 25 2021 | 594682 | 2828164 | 28969 | 6756 | 6178 | 9374 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 36 | 51.7 | 8.3% | 514 | 0.08% | 724 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 70 | 119.0 | 18.6% | 1148 | 0.15% | 1677 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 62 | 101.1 | 17.4% | 1077 | 0.14% | 1618 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 71 | 95.7 | 16.2% | 999 | 0.13% | 1540 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 55 | 87.9 | 14.3% | 881 | 0.13% | 1302 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 59 | 80.9 | 13.2% | 817 | 0.1% | 1314 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 27 | 41.4 | 7.7% | 478 | 0.06% | 760 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 19 | 25.7 | 4.3% | 264 | 0.04% | 439 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 399 | 603.4 | 100% | 6178 | 0.11% | 9374 | 0.16% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.8 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 10.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 12% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.1 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 18.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6 | 17.5 | 4.7 | 10 | 6.1 | 12.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.1 | 30 | 24.2 | 62.7 | 90.6 | 12.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.1 | 22.2 | 21.4 | 603.4 | 823.4 | 13.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.67 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6077"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges