Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) delineating Friday summaries on: 2020-05-15 to 2020-05-22, 2020-10-16 to 2020-10-23, 2020-11-20 to2020-11-27.

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 19 2021 11391 50876 387 106 71 102
April 20 2021 11401 50908 391 106 72 105
April 21 2021 11410 50986 391 106 74 104
April 22 2021 11415 51067 391 106 77 104
April 23 2021 11424 51123 391 106 80 104
April 24 2021 11431 51185 391 106 77 102
April 25 2021 11439 51252 391 106 78 103
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.3 7.7% 6 0.05% 8 0.07%
10-19 0 0.3 11.5% 9 0.07% 16 0.12%
20-29 3 2.0 29.5% 23 0.11% 28 0.13%
30-39 1 2.0 24.4% 19 0.14% 23 0.17%
40-49 0 0.7 9% 7 0.07% 9 0.09%
50-59 1 0.4 7.7% 6 0.05% 7 0.06%
60-69 1 1.0 9% 7 0.06% 10 0.09%
70+ 1 0.1 1.3% 1 0.01% 2 0.02%
All ages 8 6.9 100% 78 0.07% 103 0.1%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 19 2021 7263 29912 247 94 45 78
April 20 2021 7274 29937 249 94 52 77
April 21 2021 7279 29988 250 94 57 75
April 22 2021 7282 30015 250 94 60 73
April 23 2021 7285 30032 250 94 49 67
April 24 2021 7288 30059 250 94 39 66
April 25 2021 7288 30083 250 94 30 66
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.6 16.7% 5 0.06% 7 0.09%
10-19 0 1.0 33.3% 10 0.12% 15 0.18%
20-29 0 0.1 6.7% 2 0.03% 7 0.1%
30-39 0 0.7 16.7% 5 0.06% 12 0.14%
40-49 0 0.1 3.3% 1 0.01% 11 0.14%
50-59 0 0.3 6.7% 2 0.02% 6 0.06%
60-69 0 0.6 13.3% 4 0.05% 5 0.06%
70+ 0 0.1 3.3% 1 0.01% 3 0.04%
All ages 0 3.6 100% 30 0.05% 66 0.1%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 19 2021 5655 19812 259 76 66 104
April 20 2021 5655 19822 259 77 63 99
April 21 2021 5661 19859 261 77 59 92
April 22 2021 5666 19893 261 77 61 94
April 23 2021 5669 19914 261 77 61 80
April 24 2021 5679 19936 263 77 65 87
April 25 2021 5684 19955 263 77 59 82
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 5.1% 3 0.06% 4 0.07%
10-19 2 0.9 18.6% 11 0.2% 13 0.24%
20-29 1 0.6 11.9% 7 0.15% 8 0.18%
30-39 1 1.1 16.9% 10 0.18% 13 0.24%
40-49 0 0.7 10.2% 6 0.12% 9 0.18%
50-59 1 0.6 16.9% 10 0.15% 12 0.18%
60-69 0 0.4 13.6% 8 0.13% 16 0.25%
70+ 0 0.4 6.8% 4 0.06% 7 0.11%
All ages 5 5.1 100% 59 0.13% 82 0.18%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 19 2021 12547 56638 396 80 43 79
April 20 2021 12556 56737 396 80 45 74
April 21 2021 12565 56808 397 80 50 78
April 22 2021 12582 56899 398 80 67 87
April 23 2021 12598 56993 398 80 76 94
April 24 2021 12617 57080 398 80 87 106
April 25 2021 12617 57123 398 80 80 102
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.1 17.5% 14 0.12% 18 0.15%
10-19 -1 3.4 28.8% 23 0.14% 29 0.18%
20-29 0 1.0 8.8% 7 0.03% 10 0.05%
30-39 0 2.3 23.8% 19 0.14% 24 0.18%
40-49 0 0.9 10% 8 0.06% 8 0.06%
50-59 0 0.3 0% 0 0% 3 0.02%
60-69 0 0.7 7.5% 6 0.04% 6 0.04%
70+ 1 0.3 3.8% 3 0.02% 4 0.03%
All ages 0 10.0 100% 80 0.07% 102 0.09%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 19 2021 43559 338303 1370 292 742 1084
April 20 2021 43603 338549 1376 292 699 1088
April 21 2021 43666 338985 1379 293 656 1096
April 22 2021 43765 339570 1380 293 704 1057
April 23 2021 43830 340019 1381 293 723 1013
April 24 2021 43890 340511 1385 295 686 986
April 25 2021 43945 340931 1389 295 643 935
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 10 4.9 7.3% 47 0.08% 67 0.11%
10-19 12 14.9 24% 154 0.22% 213 0.3%
20-29 12 17.3 27.7% 178 0.17% 251 0.24%
30-39 8 8.7 14% 90 0.12% 137 0.18%
40-49 5 8.1 12.6% 81 0.12% 116 0.18%
50-59 4 5.1 7.5% 48 0.07% 89 0.14%
60-69 1 3.1 5.6% 36 0.07% 48 0.09%
70+ 3 0.6 1.4% 9 0.02% 14 0.03%
All ages 55 62.7 100% 643 0.12% 935 0.17%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 19 2021 590831 2803121 28594 6710 6896 10647
April 20 2021 591636 2806631 28694 6718 6897 10566
April 21 2021 592262 2811070 28764 6721 6954 10465
April 22 2021 592994 2816234 28817 6725 7284 10151
April 23 2021 593789 2820847 28865 6738 7157 9854
April 24 2021 594283 2824492 28927 6757 6722 9544
April 25 2021 594682 2828164 28969 6756 6178 9374
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 36 51.7 8.3% 514 0.08% 724 0.11%
10-19 70 119.0 18.6% 1148 0.15% 1677 0.22%
20-29 62 101.1 17.4% 1077 0.14% 1618 0.21%
30-39 71 95.7 16.2% 999 0.13% 1540 0.2%
40-49 55 87.9 14.3% 881 0.13% 1302 0.19%
50-59 59 80.9 13.2% 817 0.1% 1314 0.16%
60-69 27 41.4 7.7% 478 0.06% 760 0.1%
70+ 19 25.7 4.3% 264 0.04% 439 0.07%
All ages 399 603.4 100% 6178 0.11% 9374 0.16%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
9.8 11.8 13.4 6.9 6.9 10.6%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
10.2 3.6 6.4 12%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
18.1 5.1 6.4 18.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
8.6 17.5 4.7 10 6.1 12.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
17.1 30 24.2 62.7 90.6 12.9%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
16.1 22.2 21.4 603.4 823.4 13.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.67 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6077"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red